Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. They simply vote on merit. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Jeff. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Will That Last?]. In their . Ron Elving . Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Seriously. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. our Gitlab account where you can The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. hide caption. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. 12. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. 7. Hillary Clinton (578) Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder.